How Much Will It Cost to Save Nature?

拯救大自然到底要花多少钱？

Somewhere between $103 billion and $895 billion a year – that is how much funding will be needed to “bend the curve” on global nature loss, according to several recent estimates.

最近的几份估算研究显示，要想扭转全球生态损失的曲线，每年的花费将达到1030亿至8950亿美元。

Campaigners and academics have been striving to convince governments and the private sector that the current loss of nature – dubbed by scientists the “sixth mass extinction” – poses a threat not just to species and ecosystems, but also to economies.

科学家们将目前的生态破坏称为“第六次大灭绝”。环保人士和专业学者一直试图让政府和私营部门相信，这种“灭绝”不仅会威胁自然物种和生态系统，还会同时威胁经济发展。

Now, an expert panel convened by the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) has analyzed various estimates of the costs and benefits of conserving nature. The analysis is part of work surrounding international negotiations on a new deal for nature, which will be agreed in Kunming, China, in May 2021.

联合国《生物多样性公约》（简称CBD）召集的一个专家小组已经对保护自然的成本和收益进行了估算分析。2021年5月在昆明召开的大会上将达成一项全球性的自然保护新协议，而上述分析正是围绕这一协议的若干国际谈判相关工作的一部分。

New targets under discussion would see areas protected for nature on both land and sea increased from 17% to at least 30%. The new goals will replace the Aichi targets agreed in 2010, which the CBD recently confirmed had mostly failed.

正在讨论的新目标拟将陆地和海洋保护面积从17%提升到至少30%。这些目标将取代2010年达成的“爱知目标”。《生物多样性公约》前不久确定“爱知目标”大部分未能实现。

The lower funding range, of $103-178 billion, is based only on investments in expanding protected areas, the panel noted.

专家小组指出，1030亿至1780亿美元的较低资金估值是只考虑扩大保护区面积的情况下，按照目前每公顷保护区的预算支出计算得出的所需投资。

The larger range, of $631 billion to $895 billion, takes into account the cost of making the agricultural, fishery and forestry sectors sustainable, conserving biodiversity in urban and coastal areas, managing invasive species, and protecting urban water quality – all of which currently drive biodiversity loss.

而6310亿至8950亿美元的较高资金估值则考虑了农林渔等产业活动的可持续发展、城市和沿海生物多样性保护、入侵物种管理、城市水质保护等减缓现有生态多样性损失措施的成本。

Despite differing methodologies, the CBD expert panel noted that these estimates all reach the same conclusion: investment must increase substantially from current levels.

《生物多样性公约》专家小组指出，虽然估算方式不同，但重点在于它们都得出了相同的结论，那就是必须在现有基础上大幅提升生态保护资金支持力度。

The panel also stressed that continuing on current trajectories of nature destruction will lead to significant global economic costs. It pointed to an analysis by campaign group WWF that estimates the loss of “services” provided by nature, such as crop pollination and clean water supply, at nearly $500 billion a year. Investing to protect nature would save money in the longer term by reducing the amount needed to tackle problems caused by losing these services, it said.

专家小组还强调，如果任由全球生态继续沿着当前的轨迹破坏下去，将给全球经济带来巨大的损失。世界自然基金会（WWF）项目组分析显示，农作物授粉和清洁水供应等生态系统“服务”减少导致的损失将达到每年近5000亿美元。投资生态保护能够减少应对上述服务缺失而产生的成本，从长远来看反而可以节约资金。