How Will the Aviation Industry Develop in the Post-pandemic Era?
后疫情时代，航空业应如何发展？
林晓洁 供稿
For many airlines, 2020 has been a precarious year -- with carriers navigating not just how to keep employees and passengers safe, but also how to avoid bankruptcy as the pandemic grinds global air traffic to a halt.
2020年是航空史上糟糕的一年。航空公司不仅要考虑如何保障员工和乘客的安全，还要考虑如何在全球航空运输停摆之际避免破产。
Faced with the severe situation, airlines need to combine "self-rescue" strategies with government supports, expanding financing channels while cutting operating costs.
面对严峻形势，航空公司需要将“自救”和“他救”相结合，扩大融资渠道以及节省运营成本。
1. Government's Financial Supports
政府补助
Many airlines ended 2019 with low cash reserves, so financial assistance from the government is crucial for them. Globally, governments have pledged a total of $123 billion in financial aid to airlines.
许多航司2019年底的现金储备已经不多，因此财政援助对航空公司至关重要。各国政府承诺向航空公司提供总计1230亿美元的财政援助。
For example, the Civil Aviation Administration of China, together with the Ministry of Finance, has introduced a package of subsidy and support policies, including exempting airlines from the civil aviation development fund. The US Treasury had also announced a rescue package for the airline industry, including $32 billion in liquidity support for wage subsidies.
例如，中国民航局会同财政部先后出台了一揽子补贴以及支持政策,比如免征航空公司应缴纳的民航发展基金等。美国财政部此前公布了对航空业的援助计划，比如提供320亿美元的流动资金作为薪资补助。
The government's help, however, can only meet the temporary needs. In the long run, most of the aid will leave airlines with more debts, meaning the industry will suffer a crisis that will take much longer to recover.
不过，政府的帮助只能解决航司的一时之急。长远来看，大部分援助将使航空公司背负更多债务，这意味着行业恢复时间要比预期长得多。
2. Self-rescue Strategies
自救措施
1) Capital Raising
融资
Airlines are now looking for ways to normalize cash flow. In the first quarter of 2020, many Airlines of China issued bonds to raise funds. For example, China Southern Airlines and Air China have received RMB 22.5 billion and RMB 9 billion from bond issuance, with year-on-year growth rates of 87.5% and 57.89% respectively.
如今，各个航司都在想办法正常化现金流。2020年的第一季度，多家中国航司发行债券融资，南航和国航一季度发行债券收到的现金分别为225亿元和90亿元，同比增幅分别为87.5%和57.89%。
Southwest Airlines sold 70 million shares in April and raised about $ 4 billion by issuing $ 2 billion in convertible bonds, and United Airlines raised more than $1 billion in a share offering.
美国西南航空在4月份出售了7000万股股票，同时发行了20亿美元的可转换债券，筹集了约40亿美元资金。美联航发行股票筹资逾10亿美元。
2) Layoffs and Pay Cut
裁员降薪
About 7 million related jobs in the European aviation industry were affected in 2020. Major European airports such as Britain's Heathrow airport and Germany's Frankfurt airport are also considering plans to reduce staff on different scales. At Qantas, Australia's largest airline, at least 6,000 jobs will be cut and another 15,000 will remain no pay.
2020年欧洲地区航空业有700万个相关就业岗位受到影响。英国希斯罗机场、德国法兰克福机场等欧洲主要机场也在考虑推出不同规模的裁员计划。而澳大利亚最大航空公司澳洲航空将裁员至少6000人，另有1.5万名员工将继续停薪留职。
Meanwhile, United airlines said it will temporarily cut 36,000 jobs, nearly 45% of its total workforce. The three biggest European airlines, Lufthansa, British Airways and Air France-KLM, also plan to cut 22,000, 12,000 and 7,500 jobs respectively, in the near future.
此外，美联航称将临时裁员36000人，占总员工的近45%。汉莎航空、英航和法航荷航等欧洲三大航近期也计划分别削减2.2万、1.2万和7500个岗位。
3) Retiring Aircraft
退役机队
With global travel demand plummeting, many airlines have grounded their planes, accelerating the pace of aircraft retirement. There were about 20,200 Airbus and Boeing jets in service globally at the start of the year, but after the COVID-19 outbreak, the number has plummeted to 7,400 in mid-April. American airlines are expected to retire as many as 1,000 aircraft this year. Some older models are also being abandoned.
由于全球航空需求急剧下滑，大量航空公司停飞客机，加速了客机退役的脚步。今年年初，全球航空公司约有20200架空客和波音客机在服役，新冠疫情发生之后，服役机队规模骤降，4月中旬降至7400架。据预测，2020年美国航企的退役飞机数量将多达1000架飞机。一些老旧的客机型号也将退役。
4) Transformation of Passenger Plane to Cargo Plane
客机改货机
Because of the global shortage of virus prevention supplies, the demand for air cargo has increased significantly. Many airlines have thus transformed their passenger planes into cargo planes, which can not only offset the loss of the airlines to a certain extent, but also make up for the current shortage of cargo capacity.
随着全球防疫物资缺乏，航空货运需求大幅增长。因此，许多航空公司相继将客机改成货机，这既能在一定程度上抵消航空公司的亏损，也能弥补当前货运能力不足的问题。
3. What will happen to China's aviation industry in the post-pandemic era?
后疫情时代，中国航空业将有哪些变化？
1) Travelers will be more health-sensitive rather than price-sensitive.
旅客从价格敏感转为健康敏感
In the post-pandemic era, passengers will be more concerned about the health issues during the flight. Therefore, the most important question is how to provide consumers with a safer fly experience. The pandemic has also led to the development of contactless services in the industry, involving a range of upgrades to equipment.
在后疫情时代，很多旅客由以前的价格敏感变成健康敏感，所以疫情之后，最关键的是航空业如何给消费者提供更安全的飞行体验。此次疫情还催生了航空业非接触式服务的发展，涉及到一系列设备上的更新。
2) Demands for business travel will be further declined.
民航出差旅行需求受到显著影响
In the long run, telecommunication technologies such as videoconferencing and cloud collaboration will irreversibly reduce demands for business air travel. For airlines, the traditional definition of passenger division is now outdated. In addition, the domestic market will become the main market of China aviation for a period of time, and the route deployment, service content and marketing strategies all need to be adjusted accordingly.
从长期来看，视频会议、云协作等远程办公技术将不可逆地削减一部分商务航空出行需求。对于航司来说，传统的旅客划分定义已经过时。同时，国内市场将在一段时期内成为中国航司的主要市场，航线部署、航空服务内容及市场营销策略等都应做出针对性的调整。
【VOCABULARY】
1. pledge v. 保证给与，许诺，用……抵押
2. subsidy n. 补贴，津贴，补助金
3. exempt v. 免除，豁免
4. liquidity n. 流动性，流动资产，（金融）偿债能力
5. convertible adj. 可改变的，同意义的，可交换的
6. layoff n. 临时解雇，失业期