VOA慢速：联合国预计世界人口将在2080年代达到103亿

UN: World Population Expected to Reach 10.3 Billion in 2080s

慢速 | 四级 偏难 | 487词 | 5min29s

刘立军供稿

Part I. QUESTIONS

Listen to the news and choose the best answer to each question you hear.

Q1. According to the U.N. report, when is the world population expected to reach its peak?

A. In the 2070s.

B. In the 2080s.

C. By the end of the century.

D. In the 2050s.

Q2. What significant change did John Wilmoth mention regarding population predictions?

A. The current century will see the lowest population growth.

B. There will be no significant changes in global population trends.

C. Population levels will remain constant throughout the century.

D. The probability of the population peaking this century has increased.

Q3. Which countries are expected to see a population decline within the next 30 years?

A. Brazil, Iran, Turkey and Vietnam.

B. The United States, India, Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan.

C. China, Germany, Japan and Russia.

D. Nine nations with populations doubling between 2024 and 2054.

Q4. Why does the U.N. report predict an earlier population peak than previously thought?

A. Lower fertility levels in some large countries.

B. Higher mortality rates in several countries.

C. Increased government interventions worldwide.

D. Economic downturns affecting birth rates.

Q5. What is the main focus of this report?

A. The challenges of sustaining the growing world population.

B. Predictions about world population growth and its implications.

C. Strategies to manage declining birth rates globally.

D. The impact of migration on global population trends.

Part II. TRANSCRIPT

UN: World Population Expected to Reach 10.3 Billion in 2080s

(Q1) The United Nations is predicting the world’s population will reach 10.3 billion in the 2080s.

The prediction appears in a new U.N. report. The report also suggests that the population will then slightly decrease to about 10.2 billion by the end of the century.

John Wilmoth is head of the U.N. Population Division, which prepared the report. He told The Associated Press (AP) that there is a high probability that the world’s population will reach its height, or peak, within the current century. (Q2) He said the probability of that happening is about 80 percent. Wilmoth described that estimate as “a major change” compared to predictions from 10 years ago. At that time, the estimated probability was about 30 percent.

U.N. Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development Navid Hanif recently spoke about the report at a briefing. He said the expectation that the world’s population in 2100 will be lower than previously thought has “important policy implications for the sustainability of our planet.”

briefing n. 情况介绍会

implication n. 可能的影响（或作用、结果）

The world’s population has continued to grow during the past 75 years, from an estimated 2.6 billion in 1950 to 8 billion in November 2022. Since then, it has increased about 2.5 percent to 8.2 billion.

(Q3) The report notes the population has already peaked in 63 countries and territories. These include China, Germany, Japan and Russia. Within this grouping, the total population is estimated to drop 14 percent over the next 30 years.

grouping n. 分组，分类

In another 48 countries and territories, the population is predicted to peak between 2025 and 2054. Those countries include Brazil, Iran, Turkey and Vietnam.

For the remaining 126 countries and territories, the population is expected to increase through 2054. The countries in this grouping include the United States, India, Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan. The report said these areas would see their populations peak in the second half of the century or later.

For nine of these nations, the U.N. estimates the populations will double between 2024 and 2054.

Wilmoth said these differences are notable. But he said, “it’s important to understand that all populations are following a similar path.”

The U.N. report suggests the earlier population peak is predicted for several reasons. (Q4) These include lower fertility levels in some of the world’s largest countries, especially China. Estimates for China suggest the country’s population will drop sharply, from 1.4 billion in 2024 to 633 million in 2100.

fertility level 生育水平

The report noted that worldwide, women are having an average of one less child than they did in 1990. In addition, the average number of live births per woman is below 2.1 in over half of all countries and territories. This is a level experts have identified as being necessary for a country’s population to keep its size without migration.

live birth 婴儿安全出生；活胎出生

Wilmoth said the report shows that nearly 20 percent of the world has “ultra-low” fertility, with women having fewer than 1.5 live births. In China, the current number is about one birth per woman.

Part III. KEY

Q1. B. 细节题。题目出处为“The United Nations is predicting the world’s population will reach 10.3 billion in the 2080s.” 意为：“联合国预测世界人口将在2080年代达到103亿。” 因此答案为B。

Q2. D. 细节题。题目出处为“He said the probability of that happening is about 80 percent ... At that time, the estimated probability was about 30 percent.” 意为：“他说这种情况（世界人口达到顶峰）发生的概率约为80%，当时估计的概率约为30%。” 因此答案为D。

Q3. C. 细节题。题目出处为“The report notes the population has already peaked in 63 countries and territories. These include China, Germany, Japan and Russia. Within this grouping, the total population is estimated to drop 14 percent over the next 30 years.” 意为：“报告指出，63个国家和地区的人口已经达到顶峰。这些国家包括中国、德国、日本和俄罗斯。未来30年，这些国家的总人口预计会下降14%。” 因此答案为C。

Q4. A. 推理题。题目出处为“These include lower fertility levels in some of the world’s largest countries, especially China.” 意为：“这些原因包括一些世界上最大国家（特别是中国）的生育水平降低。” 这导致人口峰值会提早到来，因此答案为A。

Q5. B. 主旨题。题目出处为“UN: World Population Expected to Reach 10.3 Billion in 2080s”以及整个文章内容。文章讨论了联合国对人口增长的预测及其相关影响。因此答案为B。

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