经济学人：如何投资人工智能

刘立军 供稿

TRANSCRIPT

Finance & economics

Machine earning

How to invest in artificial intelligence: Private startups or public markets?

It has been a torrid 18 months for investors who bet on tech.

SoftBank, a Japanese investment firm that epitomized the 2010s boom in venture capital for companies with rapid-growth ambitions, is still smarting from the shift to a world of higher interest rates and lower corporate valuations.

But there is one area in which the firm, run by Son Masayoshi, its charismatic founder, wants to peek above the parapet: investments in artificial intelligence (AI).

The advances of generative-AI platforms, such as ChatGPT, have left just about every investor discussing what to make of the incipient industry, and which firms it might upturn.

Mr.. Son sees parallels with the early period of the internet.

Generative AI could provide a new pipeline of initial public offerings ― and the foundation for the next generation of mega-cap tech firms.

Investors face two questions.

The first is which frontier technologies will make market leaders a fortune.

That is difficult enough.

The second, establishing whether the value will accrue to upstarts backed by venture capital or existing technology giants, is at least as tricky.

Nobody knows if it is better to have the best chatbot or plenty of customers ― having a head start in a whizzy new tech is not the same as being able to make money from it.

Indeed, lots of the value of revolutionary innovation is often captured by existing giants.

Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are three of the seven largest listed companies in America, worth a combined $3.4trn.

They were founded between 1994 and 2004, emerging at a time when internet technology was new and people were spending an increasing amount of time online.

Alibaba, a Chinese e-commerce giant, is another similar example (SoftBank’s early $20m stake in the company helped cement Mr. Son’s reputation as an investor).

Spotting tech trends, and developing the best platforms, generated a gargantuan amount of value for early and even not-so-early investors.

Legacy firms struggled to jump on the bandwagon.

Will the story be the same this time around?

The insights of Clayton Christensen, a management guru who pioneered a theory of innovation just as the internet giants were bursting onto the scene, can provide a useful guide.

Christensen noted that smaller companies often gain traction in low-end markets and entirely new ones, which the largest incumbents eschew.

The incumbents focus on deploying new technology for their existing customers and lines of business.

They are not incompetent or ignorant of technological progress.

Instead, they follow the seemingly correct path from a profit-maximizing perspective ― until it is too late and they are fatally undermined.

Investors like Mr. Son, excited about the future of startups that focus on AI, are implicitly presuming that a period of disruptive innovation is under way.

But most of the recent excitement about generative-AI platforms has focused on their potential as a new technology to be deployed, not as companies which could open up brand new markets.

In the case of other recent technological innovations, incumbents have won the day.

Elad Gil, a venture capitalist, has noted that the value of previous advances in machine learning, the broader category of which generative AI is a part, have accrued almost entirely to incumbents.

The early internet startups have benefited, as have Microsoft and chip firms like Nvidia and Micron.

The earlier stages of machine learning produced no listed firms that might be considered the Amazon or Google of their niche.

Christensen’s insights make clear that revolutionary innovation does not always end up being revolutionary in business terms.

Yet existing tech firms are now spending enormous sums on AI, suggesting they should be well-placed if the tech does turn out to revolutionize business.

It is possible an investment in a broad index fund tracking existing listed tech firms will end up outperforming the equivalent investment in private, strictly AI-focused startups.

Theories about why innovation is sometimes disruptive and sometimes not are more often discussed by students of business and management than stock pickers.

But the difference between the two possibilities is crucial in assessing whether the next generation of listed tech companies, with market capitalizations in the hundreds of billions of dollars, is to be found among private AI firms.

As things stand, it looks more likely that the market value of the technology will end up as a new string to the bow of already giant tech firms.

VOCABULARY

1. torrid adj. very difficult 艰难的。例如：They face a torrid time in tonight’s game. 他们在今晚的比赛中面临一场恶战。

2. epitomize v. to be a perfect example of sth. 成为……的典范（或典型）

3. charismatic adj. having charisma 有超凡魅力的；有号召力（或感召力）的。例如：a charismatic leader 魅力超凡的领袖

4. parapet n. a low wall along the edge of a bridge, a roof, etc. to stop people from falling 防护矮墙

5. incipient adj. (formal) just beginning 刚开始的；初始的；早期的。例如：signs of incipient unrest动乱的初期迹象

6. upturn n. a situation in which sth. improves or increases over a period of time 回升；好转；改善；提高。例如：an upturn in the economy 经济的好转

7. accrue v. to increase over a period of time （逐渐）增长，增加。例如：economic benefits accruing to the country from tourism 旅游业为该国带来的经济效益

8. chatbot n. 聊天机器人（一种计算机程序，能同人类用户进行聊天式互动）

9. whizzy adj. (informal) having features that make use of advanced technology 采用先进技术的

10. gargantuan adj. extremely large 巨大的；庞大的

11. bandwagon n. an activity that more and more people are becoming involved in 风靡的活动；时尚。例如：The World Cup bandwagon is starting to roll. 世界杯足球赛热潮即将涌起。

12. guru n. (informal) a person who is an expert on a particular subject or who is very good at doing sth. 专家；权威；大师

13. traction n. the fact of an idea, product, etc. becoming popular or being accepted （观点或产品等）变得流行（或被接受）

14. incumbent n. a person who has an official position 在职者；现任者。例如：the present incumbent of the White House现任美国总统

15. eschew v. (formal) to deliberately avoid or keep away from sth. （有意地）避开，回避，避免

16. niche n. (business 商) an opportunity to sell a particular product to a particular group of people （产品的）商机；市场定位

17. disruptive adj. causing problems, noise, etc. so that sth. cannot continue normally 引起混乱的；扰乱性的；破坏性的。例如：She had a disruptive influence on the rest of the class. 她搅扰了班上其他的学生。

QUESTIONS

Listen to the news and choose the best answer to each question you hear.

1. What is the subject of SoftBank’s investment in artificial intelligence?

A. Public markets.

B. Chatbots.

C. Legacy firms.

D. Venture capital-backed startups.

2. According to the article, what is the potential benefit of investing in generative AI platforms?

A. Creating a new pipeline of IPOs.

B. Making companies more profitable.

C. Increasing corporate valuations.

D. Lowering interest rates.

3. According to the article, which technology giants have reaped significant benefits from revolutionary innovation?

A. Alphabet, Amazon and Meta.

B. SoftBank, Alibaba and Tencent.

C. Apple, Google and Facebook.

D. IBM, Microsoft and Oracle.

4. What is the main challenge for investors considering investment in frontier technologies?

A. Deciding whether to invest in private startups or public markets.

B. Determining which technologies will make money for market leaders.

C. Identifying the best chatbot technology.

D. Attracting customers to new technologies.

5. What is Clayton Christensen’s theory of innovation?

A. Innovations should focus on deploying new technology for existing customers and lines of business.

B. Startups gain traction in low-end markets and entirely new ones, which the largest incumbents eschew.

C. Incumbents are ignorant of technological progress.

D. Revolutionary innovation always ends up being revolutionary in business terms.

6. According to the passage, why have incumbents won the day in previous technological innovations?

A. They are competent and knowledgeable about technological progress.

B. They follow the seemingly correct path from a profit-maximizing perspective.

C. They invest in private, strictly AI-focused startups.

D. They benefit more from the value of previous advances in machine learning.

7. What is the author’s view on the potential of generative-AI platforms as a new technology to be deployed?

A. They could open up brand new markets.

B. They are unlikely to revolutionize business.

C. They will definitely produce listed firms like Amazon or Google.

D. They will only benefit early internet startups and chip firms.

8. What is the author’s opinion on whether private AI firms will become the next generation of listed tech companies?

A. It is possible but unlikely.

B. It is very likely.

C. Private AI firms will definitely become the next generation of listed tech companies.

D. Theories about innovation are more important in assessing this possibility than stock picking.

KEY

1. What is the subject of SoftBank’s investment in artificial intelligence?

A. Public markets.

B. Chatbots.

C. Legacy firms.

D. Venture capital-backed startups.

【答案】D

【解析】细节题。题干中提到了“SoftBank”和“investments in artificial intelligence”，并且文章重点讨论了基于AI的初创公司和现有技术巨头之间的竞争，所以正确选项为D。

2. According to the article, what is the potential benefit of investing in generative AI platforms?

A. Creating a new pipeline of IPOs.

B. Making companies more profitable.

C. Increasing corporate valuations.

D. Lowering interest rates.

【答案】A

【解析】推理题。在文章中，作者提到了“Generative AI could provide a new pipeline of initial public offerings”，因此正确选项为A。

3. According to the article, which technology giants have reaped significant benefits from revolutionary innovation?

A. Alphabet, Amazon and Meta.

B. SoftBank, Alibaba and Tencent.

C. Apple, Google and Facebook.

D. IBM, Microsoft and Oracle.

【答案】A

【解析】细节题。文章提到了Alphabet, Amazon和Meta等现有技术巨头，强调它们的市值高达3.4万亿美元，并且是在互联网技术新兴时期出现的公司。因此，正确选项为A。

4. What is the main challenge for investors considering investment in frontier technologies?

A. Deciding whether to invest in private startups or public markets.

B. Determining which technologies will make money for market leaders.

C. Identifying the best chatbot technology.

D. Attracting customers to new technologies.

【答案】B

【解析】细节题。文章中提到，投资者面临两个问题，第一个是哪些前沿技术将使市场领导者赚取财富，这是非常困难的。因此，正确选项为B。

5. What is Clayton Christensen’s theory of innovation?

A. Innovations should focus on deploying new technology for existing customers and lines of business.

B. Startups gain traction in low-end markets and entirely new ones, which the largest incumbents eschew.

C. Incumbents are ignorant of technological progress.

D. Revolutionary innovation always ends up being revolutionary in business terms.

【答案】B

【解析】细节题。命题出处：“Christensen noted that smaller companies often gain traction in low-end markets and entirely new ones, which the largest incumbents eschew.” 即小公司往往能在低端市场和全新领域抢占先机，因为这些领域往往是大公司所回避的。

6. According to the passage, why have incumbents won the day in previous technological innovations?

A. They are competent and knowledgeable about technological progress.

B. They follow the seemingly correct path from a profit-maximizing perspective.

C. They invest in private, strictly AI-focused startups.

D. They benefit more from the value of previous advances in machine learning.

【答案】B

【解析】细节题。命题出处：“The incumbents focus on deploying new technology for their existing customers and lines of business. They are not incompetent or ignorant of technological progress. Instead, they follow the seemingly correct path from a profit-maximizing perspective ― until it is too late and they are fatally undermined.”

7. What is the author’s view on the potential of generative-AI platforms as a new technology to be deployed?

A. They could open up brand new markets.

B. They will definitely produce listed firms like Amazon or Google.

C. They are unlikely to revolutionize business.

D. They will only benefit early internet startups and chip firms.

【答案】C

【解析】推理题。命题出处：“Investors like Mr. Son, excited about the future of startups that focus on AI, are implicitly presuming that a period of disruptive innovation is under way. But most of the recent excitement about generative-AI platforms has focused on their potential as a new technology to be deployed, not as companies which could open up brand new markets.” 因此，作者认为这些平台不太可能革新商业。

8. What is the author’s opinion on whether private AI firms will become the next generation of listed tech companies?

A. It is possible but unlikely.

B. It is very likely.

C. Private AI firms will definitely become the next generation of listed tech companies.

D. Theories about innovation are more important in assessing this possibility than stock picking.

【答案】A

【解析】推理题。文章指出，许多科技公司正在投入巨资进行AI方面的研发，因此大型科技公司可能会在这方面占据优势。最后一句话是全文的结论：“As things stand, it looks more likely that the market value of the technology will end up as a new string to the bow of already giant tech firms.” 因此，作者认为私人的AI公司成为上市科技公司的可能性不大。

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