Back to work 

But not back to normal

IN GOOD TIMES Gu Changshi’s job is to persuade companies to invest in Lingang, a wind-swept free-trade zone on the edge of Shanghai, abutting the Pacific Ocean. But over the past two months, as China has battled covid-19, his job has been to ensure basic survival, both physical and corporate. First his agency requisitioned two hotels to quarantine anyone coming to Lingang from virus-hit regions. Then it started offering conditional cash grants to beleaguered companies located there. “There is no fixed limit to the subsidies,” he says, his hands spreading wide.

When China went into lockdown in late January, economists thought that its growth trajectory would be V-shaped. There would be a sharp slowdown, followed by a swift rebound as soon as the virus was under control, as happened with China’s outbreak of SARS in 2003. They were right about the slowdown. Hundreds of millions of people stayed inside for weeks on end. Factories, offices, restaurants and shops closed, in scenes now being replayed around the world. Most analysts think that China’s economy shrank in the first three months of 2020, perhaps by as much as 10%. The last time it contracted was more than four decades ago, according to official data.

The prediction of a quick, strong recovery is more debatable. With barely any new cases of covid-19 now being detected, the government is trying to restore normal life. At four separate meetings of the ruling Politburo since late February, leaders have declared that they want to restart the economy. But doing so is far from simple when the pandemic is still raging elsewhere.

Reviving growth involves boosting both supply and demand. Officials schooled in Marxist theory, which emphasises production rather than consumption, have naturally turned first to the former, ie, to ensuring that goods are made. The main problem has been a dearth of blue-collar workers, many of whom went to their hometowns for the spring festival just before the lockdown and have not yet returned. Production hubs along the coast have chartered trains and buses to bring them back.

Officials boast that things are almost normal again. Fully 98% of all listed companies have resumed work, says the securities regulator. Around the country 89% of big investment projects, from airport expansions to the laying of gas pipelines, are also under way, according to a planning commission. “Roaring Chinese factories in full swing”, Xinhua, a state news agency, proclaimed on March 21st.

windswept a. 暴露在风中的；风刮的

abut v. 邻接；毗邻；紧靠

requisition v. 征用；申请领取 n. 授权书

beleaguered a. 饱经曲折的

trajectory n. 抛物线；轨迹

on end 连续

debatable a. 有争议的

Politburo n.  (共产党)政治局

dearth n. 不足