﻿WEBVTT

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I work with a bunch of mathematicians, philosophers and computer scientists,

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and we sit around and think about the future of machine intelligence,

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among other things.

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Some people think that some of these things are sort of science fiction-y,

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far out there, crazy.

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But I like to say,

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okay, let's look at the modern human condition.

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(Laughter)

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This is the normal way for things to be.

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But if we think about it,

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we are actually recently arrived guests on this planet,

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the human species.

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Think about if Earth was created one year ago,

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the human species, then,  would be 10 minutes old.

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The industrial era started two seconds ago.

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Another way to look at this is to think of world GDP over the last 10,000 years,

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I've actually taken the trouble to plot this for you in a graph.

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It looks like this.

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(Laughter)

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It's a curious shape for a normal condition.

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I sure wouldn't want to sit on it.

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(Laughter)

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Let's ask ourselves, what is the cause of this current anomaly?

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Some people would say it's technology.

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Now it's true, technology has accumulated through human history,

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and right now, technology advances extremely rapidly --

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that is the proximate cause,

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that's why we are currently  so very productive.

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But I like to think back further  to the ultimate cause.

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Look at these two highly distinguished gentlemen:

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We have Kanzi --

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he's mastered 200 lexical tokens, an incredible feat.

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And Ed Witten unleashed the second superstring revolution.

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If we look under the hood,  this is what we find:

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basically the same thing.

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One is a little larger,

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it maybe also has a few tricks in the exact way it's wired.

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These invisible differences cannot be too complicated, however,

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because there have only been 250,000 generations

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since our last common ancestor.

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We know that complicated mechanisms take a long time to evolve.

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So a bunch of relatively minor changes

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take us from Kanzi to Witten,

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from broken-off tree branches to intercontinental ballistic missiles.

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So this then seems pretty obvious that everything we've achieved,

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and everything we care about,

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depends crucially on some relatively minor changes that made the human mind.

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And the corollary, of course, is that any further changes

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that could significantly change the substrate of thinking

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could have potentially  enormous consequences.

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Some of my colleagues  think we're on the verge

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of something that could cause a profound change in that substrate,

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and that is machine superintelligence.

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Artificial intelligence used to be about putting commands in a box.

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You would have human programmers

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that would painstakingly  handcraft knowledge items.

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You build up these expert systems,

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and they were kind of useful  for some purposes,

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but they were very brittle, you couldn't scale them.

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Basically, you got out only what you put in.

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But since then,

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a paradigm shift has taken place in the field of artificial intelligence.

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Today, the action is really  around machine learning.

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So rather than handcrafting knowledge representations and features,

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we create algorithms that learn, often from raw perceptual data.

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Basically the same thing that the human infant does.

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The result is A.I. that is not limited to one domain --

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the same system can learn to translate  between any pairs of languages,

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or learn to play any computer game on the Atari console.

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Now of course,

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A.I. is still nowhere near having the same powerful, cross-domain

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ability to learn and plan as a human being has.

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The cortex still has some  algorithmic tricks

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that we don't yet know how to match in machines.

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So the question is,

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how far are we from being able to match those tricks?

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A couple of years ago,

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we did a survey of some of the world's  leading A.I. experts,

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to see what they think, and one of the questions we asked was,

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"By which year do you think there is a 50 percent probability

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that we will have achieved  human-level machine intelligence?"

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We defined human-level here  as the ability to perform

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almost any job at least as well as an adult human,

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so real human-level, not just within some limited domain.

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And the median answer was 2040 or 2050,

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depending on precisely which  group of experts we asked.

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Now, it could happen much, much later, or sooner,

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the truth is nobody really knows.

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What we do know is that the ultimate  limit to information processing

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in a machine substrate lies far outside  the limits in biological tissue.

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This comes down to physics.

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A biological neuron fires, maybe,  at 200 hertz, 200 times a second.

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But even a present-day transistor operates at the Gigahertz.

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Neurons propagate slowly in axons, 100 meters per second, tops.

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But in computers, signals can travel at the speed of light.

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There are also size limitations,

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like a human brain has  to fit inside a cranium,

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but a computer can be the size of a warehouse or larger.

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So the potential for superintelligence  lies dormant in matter,

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much like the power of the atom  lay dormant throughout human history,

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patiently waiting there until 1945.

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In this century,

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scientists may learn to awaken the power of artificial intelligence.

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And I think we might then see an intelligence explosion.

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Now most people, when they think about what is smart and what is dumb,

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I think have in mind a picture roughly like this.

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So at one end we have the village idiot,

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and then far over at the other side

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we have Ed Witten, or Albert Einstein, or whoever your favorite guru is.

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But I think that from the point of view of artificial intelligence,

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the true picture is actually probably more like this:

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AI starts out at this point here, at zero intelligence,

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and then, after many, many  years of really hard work,

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maybe eventually we get to mouse-level artificial intelligence,

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something that can navigate  cluttered environments

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as well as a mouse can.

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And then, after many, many more years of really hard work, lots of investment,

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maybe eventually we get to chimpanzee-level artificial intelligence.

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And then, after even more years  of really, really hard work,

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we get to village idiot  artificial intelligence.

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And a few moments later,  we are beyond Ed Witten.

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The train doesn't stop at Humanville Station.

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It's likely, rather, to swoosh right by.

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Now this has profound implications,

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particularly when it comes  to questions of power.

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For example, chimpanzees are strong --

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pound for pound, a chimpanzee is about twice as strong as a fit human male.

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And yet, the fate of Kanzi  and his pals depends a lot more

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on what we humans do than on what the chimpanzees do themselves.

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Once there is superintelligence,

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the fate of humanity may depend on what the superintelligence does.

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Think about it:

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Machine intelligence is the last invention that humanity will ever need to make.

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Machines will then be better  at inventing than we are,

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and they'll be doing so  on digital timescales.

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What this means is basically a telescoping of the future.

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Think of all the crazy technologies  that you could have imagined

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maybe humans could have developed in the fullness of time:

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cures for aging, space colonization,

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self-replicating nanobots or uploading of minds into computers,

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all kinds of science fiction-y stuff

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that's nevertheless consistent  with the laws of physics.

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All of this superintelligence could  develop, and possibly quite rapidly.

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Now, a superintelligence with such  technological maturity

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would be extremely powerful,

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and at least in some scenarios, it would be able to get what it wants.

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We would then have a future that would be shaped by the preferences of this A.I.

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Now a good question is, what are those preferences?

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Here it gets trickier.

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To make any headway with this,

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we must first of all avoid anthropomorphizing.

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And this is ironic because  every newspaper article

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about the future of A.I. has a picture of this:

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So I think what we need to do is to conceive of the issue more abstractly,

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not in terms of vivid Hollywood scenarios.

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We need to think of intelligence  as an optimization process,

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a process that steers the future into a particular set of configurations.

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A superintelligence is a really strong optimization process.

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It's extremely good at using  available means to achieve a state

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in which its goal is realized.

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This means that there is no necessary conenction between

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being highly intelligent in this sense,

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and having an objective that we humans would find worthwhile or meaningful.

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Suppose we give an A.I. the goal  to make humans smile.

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When the A.I. is weak, it performs useful or amusing actions

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that cause its user to smile.

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When the A.I. becomes superintelligent,

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it realizes that there is a more effective way to achieve this goal:

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take control of the world

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and stick electrodes into the facial muscles of humans

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to cause constant, beaming grins.

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Another example,

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suppose we give A.I. the goal to solve a difficult mathematical problem.

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When the A.I. becomes superintelligent,

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it realizes that the most effective way  to get the solution to this problem

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is by transforming the planet into a giant computer,

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so as to increase its thinking capacity.

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And notice that this gives the A.I.s an instrumental reason

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to do things to us that we might not approve of.

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Human beings in this model are threats,

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we could prevent the mathematical problem from being solved.

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Of course, perceivably things won't  go wrong in these particular ways;

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these are cartoon examples.

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But the general point here is important:

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if you create a really powerful optimization process

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to maximize for objective x,

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you better make sure  that your definition of x

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incorporates everything you care about.

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This is a lesson that's also taught in many a myth.

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King Midas wishes that everything he touches be turned into gold.

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He touches his daughter,  she turns into gold.

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He touches his food, it turns into gold.

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This could become practically relevant,

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not just as a metaphor for greed,

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but as an illustration of what happens

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if you create a powerful optimization process

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and give it misconceived  or poorly specified goals.

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Now you might say, if a computer starts sticking electrodes into people's faces,

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we'd just shut it off.

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A, this is not necessarily so easy to do if we've grown dependent on the system --

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like, where is the off switch  to the Internet?

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B, why haven't the chimpanzees flicked the off switch to humanity,

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or the Neanderthals?

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They certainly had reasons.

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We have an off switch,  for example, right here.

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(Choking)

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The reason is that we are  an intelligent adversary;

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we can anticipate threats  and plan around them.

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But so could a superintelligent agent,

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and it would be much better  at that than we are.

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The point is, we should not be confident that we have this under control here.

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And we could try to make our job a little bit easier by, say,

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putting the A.I. in a box,

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like a secure software environment,

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a virtual reality simulation from which it cannot escape.

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But how confident can we be that the A.I. couldn't find a bug.

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Given that merely human hackers find bugs all the time,

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I'd say, probably not very confident.

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So we disconnect the ethernet cable to create an air gap,

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but again, like merely human hackers

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routinely transgress air gaps using social engineering.

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Right now, as I speak,

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I'm sure there is some employee out there somewhere

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who has been talked into handing out  her account details

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by somebody claiming to be from the I.T. department.

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More creative scenarios are also possible,

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like if you're the A.I.,

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you can imagine wiggling electrodes around in your internal circuitry

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to create radio waves that you can use to communicate.

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Or maybe you could pretend to malfunction,

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and then when the programmers open you up to see what went wrong with you,

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they look at the source code -- Bam! --

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the manipulation can take place.

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Or it could output the blueprint to a really nifty technology,

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and when we implement it,

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it has some surreptitious side effect that the A.I. had planned.

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The point here is that we should  not be confident in our ability

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to keep a superintelligent genie locked up in its bottle forever.

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Sooner or later, it will out.

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I believe that the answer here is to figure out

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how to create superintelligent A.I. such that even if -- when -- it escapes,

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it is still safe because it is fundamentally on our side

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because it shares our values.

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I see no way around  this difficult problem.

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Now, I'm actually fairly optimistic that this problem can be solved.

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We wouldn't have to write down  a long list of everything we care about,

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or worse yet, spell it out  in some computer language

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like C++ or Python,

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that would be a task beyond hopeless.

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Instead, we would create an A.I. that uses its intelligence

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to learn what we value,

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and its motivation system is constructed in such a way that it is motivated

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to pursue our values or to perform actions that it predicts we would approve of.

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We would thus leverage  its intelligence as much as possible

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to solve the problem of value-loading.

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This can happen,

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and the outcome could be  very good for humanity.

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But it doesn't happen automatically.

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The initial conditions  for the intelligence explosion

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might need to be set up  in just the right way

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if we are to have a controlled detonation.

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The values that the A.I. has need to match ours,

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not just in the familiar context,

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like where we can easily check how the A.I. behaves,

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but also in all novel contexts that the A.I. might encounter

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in the indefinite future.

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And there are also some esoteric issues that would need to be solved, sorted out:

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the exact details of its decision theory,

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how to deal with logical uncertainty and so forth.

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So the technical problems that need to be solved to make this work

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look quite difficult --

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not as difficult as making  a superintelligent A.I.,

00:15:12.745 --> 00:15:15.613
but fairly difficult.

00:15:15.613 --> 00:15:17.308
Here is the worry:

00:15:17.308 --> 00:15:21.992
Making superintelligent A.I. is a really hard challenge.

00:15:21.992 --> 00:15:24.540
Making superintelligent A.I. that is safe

00:15:24.540 --> 00:15:26.956
involves some additional  challenge on top of that.

00:15:28.036 --> 00:15:31.523
The risk is that if somebody figures out how to crack the first challenge

00:15:31.523 --> 00:15:34.524
without also having cracked  the additional challenge

00:15:34.524 --> 00:15:36.425
of ensuring perfect safety.

00:15:37.195 --> 00:15:40.526
So I think that we should work out a solution

00:15:40.526 --> 00:15:43.348
to the control problem in advance,

00:15:43.348 --> 00:15:46.008
so that we have it available  by the time it is needed.

00:15:46.588 --> 00:15:50.095
Now it might be that we cannot solve the entire control problem in advance

00:15:50.095 --> 00:15:53.119
because maybe some elements can only be put in place

00:15:53.119 --> 00:15:57.116
once you know the details of the  architecture where it will be implemented.

00:15:57.116 --> 00:16:00.496
But the more of the control problem that we solve in advance,

00:16:00.496 --> 00:16:04.586
the better the odds that the transition to the machine intelligence era

00:16:04.586 --> 00:16:06.126
will go well.

00:16:06.126 --> 00:16:10.770
This to me looks like a thing that is well worth doing

00:16:10.770 --> 00:16:14.102
and I can imagine that if  things turn out okay,

00:16:14.102 --> 00:16:18.760
that people a million years from now look back at this century

00:16:18.760 --> 00:16:22.762
and it might well be that they say that the one thing we did that really mattered

00:16:22.762 --> 00:16:24.329
was to get this thing right.

00:16:24.329 --> 00:16:26.018
Thank you.

00:16:26.018 --> 00:16:28.831
(Applause)
