Reflation And How To Exploit It
如何从通货再膨胀中获利
The most talked-about investing strategy these days isn't stuffing money in a mattress, it's the reflation trade-the bet that the world economy will rebound, driving up interest rates and commodities prices.
就市场而言，最近谈的最多的投资策略并不是寻求避险，而是通货再膨胀交易——下注全球经济将复苏，从而推高利率水平和大宗商品价格。
Even though the economy continues to struggle, investors are looking ahead to the time when the massive rescue efforts by central banks and governments gain traction.
即便目前经济仍然走势蹒跚，投资者却具有前瞻性地看到那了各国央行和政府的大规模救助举措发挥作用的时刻。
They are focused on raw materials and commodity-related stocks that would benefit from the surge in infrastructure spending. They are looking to exploit potential bottlenecks in production that could lift prices and corporate earnings.
他们重点关注原材料和大宗商品相关类股，这些类股可能会从基础设施支出的飘升中受益。他们还期望从生产瓶颈中获利，生产瓶颈会推高价格和企业利润。
"Between the bailouts and the stimulus, it's pretty clear that we're going to have some inflation when we get out of this mess," says Roger lbbotson, founder of lbbotson Associates and chairman of hedge-fund manager Zebra Capital Management. He says, "It may not show up for another two years, after that I think it's quite likely and I think you should be positioning a portfolio against that."
伊博森伙伴咨询公司创始人、对冲基金公司斑马资本管理有限公司董事长伊博森说在诸多救助计划和剌激计划中，很明显我们走出经济危机的时候会出现一些通货膨胀。“他说，或许这种情况两年之内不会出现，但我认为在两年之后，很有可能出现，我觉得你们应该针对这种情况设置一个投资组合。”
Shawn Rubin, an adviser at Smith Barney in New York, has moved some clients partly into natural-resources stocks while using strategies to protect against a spike in inflation.
史密斯·邦尼公司驻纽约顾问肖恩·鲁宾已经将一些客户的部分投资转移至自然资源类股，同时使用策略应对通货膨胀上升的风险。
One way is to use options, where an investor is able to use relatively small amounts of money and take positions that would profit from a massive drop in Treasury prices or a near doubling in gold prices. "While in the short run such trades may not work, it's a long-term move," Mr. Rubin says. "You should buy insurance when it's cheap."
期权是一种手段，投资者可以使用相对较少的资金，建立头寸应对国债价格大幅下挫或金价上涨将近一倍的情况。如果出现这种情况，他们就能从中获利。鲁宾说，“尽管此类交易短期可能不会奏效，这是一个长期性举措。你得趁成本低廉的时候就采取防范性措施。”
And despite the recentl altirity that lifted stocks 20% from their lows as of Thursday-the common definition of the return to a bull market, though they promptly fell again Friday-most investors expect a challenging environment well into next year.
尽管在近期涨势的推动下，截至上周四美国股市较低点回升了20%一一达到了通常的牛市回归标准，不过上周五再次急剧下滑一一但多数投资者仍认为明年会遭遇更为困难的环境。
But the Federal Reserve has taken dramatic steps to revive the economy and stabilize the financial system. It has lowered interest rates essentially to zero and is on track to pump more than $2 trillion into the credit markets.
不过，美国联邦储备委员会（Fed，简称：美联储）已经采取许多重大举措重振经济，稳定金融体系。美联储已经将利率下调到实际为零的水平，并正在逐步向信贷市场注入超过2万亿美元。
On top of that, there is the $787 billion federal stimulus program coupled with a growing budget deficit. Around the globe central banks and governments are making similar moves.
除此之外，联邦政府还有7，870亿美元的剌激计划以及不断扩大的预算赤字。全球主要央行和政府都在采取着类似举措。
Paul Kasriel, director of economic research at Northern Trust, says "the Fed will likely err on the side of ensuring that the recovery is sustained and usually that means they will be late in turning against inflation. The political sentiment will be toward inflation and in preventing deflation," he adds.
北美信托银行有限公司经济研究主管保罗·卡斯里尔表示，“美联储在确保经济持续复苏时可能会出现错误，这通常意味着他们在遏制通货膨胀方面的行动可能会迟缓。”他补充说，“政治舆论将会倾向于剌激通胀和防止通缩。”
Mr. Liinamaa suggests investors keep a "survivor bias". That means "looking for names that have low cost structures and balance-sheet capacity to still be standing" even if demand doesn't recover soon. He cites steel producer Nucor as one example.
利纳马建议投资者考虑那些能够生存下来的公司。这意味着寻找那些成本结构较低、资产负债能力强劲的公司，即便需求短期难以复苏，它们仍然会生存下来。他说纽科钢铁公司就是这样一个例子。
Already there are signs that the market is less worried about deflation. That's clearest in the market for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. Back in February, five-year TIPS were priced for a 0.5% drop in consumer prices, now that's swung around to a 1.35% increase.
已经有迹象显示市场并不是那么担忧通货紧缩。这点在美国财政部通货膨胀保值债券的(TIPS)市场上表现最为明显。今军二月，5年期通货膨胀保值债券的走势显示，市场预计美国消费者价格会下跌0.5%，但目前的走势已经逆转，市场认为消费者价格会上升大约1.35%。
"The magnitude of the expected inflation rise predicted by TIPS may be small, but the direction tells the tale," says John Hollyer, a co-manager of Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund.
先锋抗通胀债券基金的联席经理霍尔耶说，“通货膨胀保值债券走势所预计的通货膨胀率幅度或许不大，但方向说明了一切。”
"The fiscal and monetary stimulus are causing investors to say there's a decent chance the Fed will be successful and there will be an increase in inflation," he says.
他说，“财政和货币剌激举措正促使投资者相信美联储很可能会取得成功，通货膨胀也很有可能上升。”