The West’s obsession with home ownership undermines growth, fairness and public faith in capitalism

西方对“居者有其屋”的执迷损害了经济增长、社会公平、以及公众对资本主义的信心

Economies can suffer both sudden crashes and chronic diseases. Housing markets in the rich world have caused both types of problem. A trillion dollars of dud mortgages blew up the financial system in 2007-08. But just as pernicious is the creeping dysfunction that housing has created over decades: vibrant cities without space to grow; ageing homeowners sitting in half-empty homes who are keen to protect their view; and a generation of young people who cannot easily afford to rent or buy and think capitalism has let them down. As our special report this week explains, much of the blame lies with warped housing policies that date back to the second world war and which are intertwined with an infatuation with home ownership. They have caused one of the rich world’s most serious and longest-running economic failures. A fresh architecture is urgently needed.

经济可能突然崩溃，也可能长期低迷。发达国家的房地产市场则两个问题兼而有之。在 2007-2008 年间，一万亿美元的不良抵押贷款摧毁了金融系统。但房地产市场几十年来日益加剧的功能失调问题也同样具有杀伤力：充满活力的城市没有发展空间；上了年纪的房主们坐在半空的房子里，渴望保护自己房子周边的风景；年轻一代买不起房，也租不起房，认为资本主义让他们失望了。正如我们本周特别报道所阐述的那样，这个问题很大程度上要归咎于二战时期扭曲的住房政策，这些政策与人们对自有住房的迷恋交织在一起。它们造成了富裕国家最严重、持续时间最长的经济失败之一。因此，西方国家迫切需要一个全新的架构。

At the root of that failure is a lack of building, especially near the thriving cities in which jobs are plentiful. From Sydney to Sydenham, fiddly regulations protect an elite of existing homeowners and prevent developers from building the skyscrapers and flats that the modern economy demands. The resulting high rents and house prices make it hard for workers to move to where the most productive jobs are, and have slowed growth. Overall housing costs in America absorb 11% of GDP, up from 8% in the 1970s. If just three big cities—New York, San Francisco and San Jose—relaxed planning rules, America’s GDP could be 4% higher. That is an enormous prize.

这种经济失败的根本原因在于住房供应不足，尤其是在工作机会充足的发达城市附近。从悉尼到西德纳姆，繁琐的法规保护了现有的精英阶层业主，阻止了开发商建造现代经济所需的摩天大楼和公寓。由此产生的高租金和高房价让工薪阶层望而却步，他们很难搬家到最富有生产力的岗位附近，因此阻碍了经济增长。美国总体住房成本占 GDP 的 11%，而在 20 世纪 70 年代仅占 8%。如果纽约、旧金山和圣约瑟这三个大城市放宽规划规则，美国的 GDP 可能会增长 4%，这是一项巨大的成就。

As well as being merely inefficient, housing markets are deeply unfair. Over a period of decades, falling interest rates have compounded inadequate supply and led to a surge in prices. In America the frenzy is concentrated in thriving cities; in other rich countries average national prices have soared, especially in English-speakingcountries where punting on property is a national sport. The financial crisis did not kill off the trend. In Britain inflation-adjusted house prices are roughly equal to their pre-crisis peak, while real wages are no higher. In Australia, despite recent falls, prices remain 20% higher than in 2008. In Canada they are up by half.

房地产市场不仅效率低下，而且极不公平。几十年来，利率下降加剧了房屋供应不足，导致了房价飙升。美国对住房的狂热主要集中在蓬勃发展的城市中。而在其他富裕国家，全国平均房价都有所飙升，特别是对以英语为母语的国家来说，在房地产上赌一波成了一项风靡全国的项目。金融危机并没有扼杀这一趋势。在英国，经通胀调整后的房价与危机前的峰值大致相当，而人们的实际收入却没有增加。澳大利亚的房价尽管最近有所下跌，但仍比 2008 年高出 20%。而加拿大的房价上涨了一半。

The soaring cost of housing has created gaping inequalities and inflamed both generational and geographical pides. In 1990 a generation of baby-boomers, with a median age of 35, owned a third of America’s real estate by value. In 2019 a similarly sized cohort of millennials, aged 31, owned just 4%. Young people’s view that housing is out of reach—unless you have rich parents—helps explain their drift towards “millennial socialism”. And homeowners of all ages who are trapped in declining places resent the windfall housing gains enjoyed in and around successful cities. In Britain areas with stagnant housing markets were more likely to vote for Brexit in 2016, even after accounting for differences in income and demography.

房价飙升让不平等现象愈发严重，也加剧了代际和地理分化。1990 年在婴儿潮出生的一代(中值年龄 35 岁) 拥有美国三分之一的房产。而 2019 年，同样规模的千禧一代 (31 岁) 仅拥有 4% 的房产。年轻人看来，买房遥不可及——除非你是个富二代——这有助于解释他们向“千禧社会主义”转变。衰退地区各个年龄层的房主，都对成功城市及其周边地区获得的意外住房收益感到不满。在英国，即使考虑到收入和地区人口差异因素，房地产市场停滞不前的地区的选民也更有可能在 2016 年公投中投脱欧票。

You might think fear and envy about housing is part of the human condition. In fact, the property pathology has its roots in a shift in public policy in the 1950s towards promoting home ownership. Since then governments have used subsidies, tax breaks and sales of public housing to encourage owner-occupation over renting. Politicians on the right have seen home ownership as a way to win votes by encouraging responsible citizenship. Those on the left see housing as a conduit for redistribution and for nudging poorer households to build wealth.

也许你会认为，人们对住房的爱恨交织是人性的一部分。事实上，房地产的功能失常根源于 20 世纪 50 年代鼓励自有住房的公共政策转变。从那时起，政府通过补贴、减税和出售公共住房来鼓励人们买房而非租房。右翼政客将自有住房所有权视为一种通过鼓励负责任的公民身份来赢得选票的方式。而左翼人士认为，住房是再分配和推动贫困家庭积累财富的渠道。